Guide · Medicare costs
Medicare Part B premium in 2027: the early projection vs. what's official
The government sets the standard Part B premium each fall, and the number lands in the same season as your Social Security raise — which is exactly why it matters. Here's what's actually official for 2027 (nothing yet), what the projections say, and the rule that protects most people from the increase.
2027 projection: about $209.50/month 2026 official premium: $202.90. The 2027 figure arrives in the CMS fall announcement.
What's official, and what's a projection
Right now, two different kinds of numbers are circulating, and mixing them up is how bad decisions happen:
- Official for 2026: the standard Part B premium is $202.90 per month, with a $283 annual deductible.
- Projection for 2027: the annual Medicare Trustees Report projects roughly $209.50 per month — an increase of about $6.60, or 3.3%. A projection, not a promise: the actual number depends on 2026 spending, congressional action on physician payments, and program reserves.
CMS typically announces the real 2027 premiums in mid-to-late fall 2026, alongside the physician fee schedule rule. When it lands, it applies to January 2027 coverage — the same month your 2027 Social Security COLA takes effect.
The premium's recent track record
| Year | Standard Part B premium | Change from prior year |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $164.90 | — |
| 2024 | $174.70 | +$9.80 |
| 2025 | $185.00 | +$10.30 |
| 2026 (official) | $202.90 | +$17.90 |
| 2027 (projection) | ~$209.50 | ~+$6.60 |
Standard amounts. Higher-income beneficiaries pay more through IRMAA; lower-income beneficiaries in Medicare Savings Programs may pay little or nothing.
Why this number decides how your raise feels
For most people with both Social Security and Medicare, the Part B premium is withheld straight from the Social Security deposit. So your January 2027 check moves by two forces at once: the COLA pushes it up, the premium change pulls it back. With the projected 3.5% COLA estimate and the ~$6.60 premium projection, a typical net raise is positive but visibly smaller than the headline percentage — the exact arithmetic our COLA calculator works through for your own benefit amount.
Hold-harmless: the rule that caps the damage
If you have Part B premiums withheld from Social Security, a federal provision called hold-harmless prevents your net benefit from falling when the premium rises faster than your COLA. Your Part B increase is capped so the check itself never drops below the prior year's net. Three groups are not protected:
- People new to Medicare in 2027 (no prior-year benefit to protect)
- People who pay Part B directly instead of via Social Security
- Higher-income beneficiaries subject to IRMAA surcharges
The deeper version of this story — including how IRMAA brackets interact — is in how Medicare Part B eats into your COLA.
What to do in the meantime
- Don't budget the projection. Treat ~$209.50 as a planning range, not a bill.
- Watch the fall announcements. The COLA becomes official October 14, 2026; CMS premiums follow within weeks. Our key dates page tracks both.
- If you're choosing a plan anyway, the Medicare Open Enrollment window (October 15 – December 7) is when premium changes and plan changes can be considered together — see the Open Enrollment guide and the AEP checklist.
Common questions
How much will the Medicare Part B premium be in 2027?
Not officially set yet. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects roughly $209.50 per month, up from $202.90 in 2026. CMS announces the official amount in fall 2026, and it takes effect January 2027.
Can my Social Security check go down because Part B went up?
Not if you're protected by hold-harmless — the rule caps the Part B increase so your net check never falls below the prior year's. New Medicare enrollees, people billed directly, and those paying IRMAA surcharges aren't covered by the protection.
When is the 2027 premium announced?
Typically mid-to-late fall 2026, in the CMS premium announcement that accompanies the physician fee schedule final rule. The COLA is expected to become official slightly earlier, October 14, 2026.
Why does the premium rise almost every year?
Part B must cover its costs: the premium is set so beneficiary premiums fund about 25% of projected Part B spending, with general revenue covering the rest. As program costs grow, the premium follows.